Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 28 h ago
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   Question

   Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?

   Rules

   The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

   This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.

   If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

   The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

   The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

   This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

   Resolution source

   https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

   End date

   Jan 28, 2027, 04:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.