Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?

Resolution

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1. 2
   Version 2, currentsince 16 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Question

   Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

   The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

   For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.

   Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
   - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
   - Assessed Russian Advances

   Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
   - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
   - Claimed Russian Territory

   Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

   If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

   Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png

   Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png

   Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417

   The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

   Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

   Resolution source

   https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

   End date

   Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC

   UMA resolution status

   proposed

2. 1
   Outcome proposedEdited between 09:06 and 20:55 UTC (12 h window)Yes100¢
   UMA resolution status

   proposed

   Resolution steps changed from none to proposed.

   Full diff, share, rate
   Read version 1, the rules before this edit

   Question

   Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

   The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

   For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.

   Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
   - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
   - Assessed Russian Advances

   Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
   - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
   - Claimed Russian Territory

   Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

   If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

   Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png

   Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png

   Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417

   The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

   Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

   Resolution source

   https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

   End date

   Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC

3. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.