Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 25 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Question

   Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

   Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

   The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.

   For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.

   Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
   - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives

   Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

   If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

   The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

   Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

   Resolution source

   https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

   End date

   Jul 1, 2027, 03:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:07 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.