Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?

Resolution

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1. 2
   Version 2, currentsince 3 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Question

   Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

   A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

   Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar.

   Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

   The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

   The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

   End date

   Oct 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC

   UMA resolution status

   proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed

2. 1
   Outcome proposedEdited between Oct 31 09:08 and 08:40 UTC (24 h window)Yes0¢
   UMA resolution status

   25 earlier steps→disputed→proposed→disputed→proposed

   Resolution steps changed from proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed to proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed.

   Full diff, share, rate
   Read version 1, the rules before this edit

   Question

   Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

   A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

   Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar.

   Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

   The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

   The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

   End date

   Oct 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC

   UMA resolution status

   proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed

3. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:08 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.