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Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?

Part of Anthropic lab leak by...?
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Yes price
—
read on the next check
24h volume
—
dollars traded
Ends
Jan 1, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Polymarket's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ended
Waiting for a proposal
Proposed
2 h to dispute on UMA
Resolved
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Polymarket…

Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Question
    Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?
    Rules

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

    Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.

    Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.

    The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    End date
    Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC
  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:09 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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