EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
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   Question

   EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

   For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.

   An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.

   The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

   End date

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:09 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.