Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

Resolution

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1. 2
   Version 2, currentsince 4 h ago
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   Question

   Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

   “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

   Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

   An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

   If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

   If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.

   The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

   End date

   Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC

   UMA resolution status

   proposed

2. 1
   Outcome proposedEdited between 03:20 and 05:25 UTC (2.1 h window)Yes0¢→0¢
   UMA resolution status

   proposed

   Resolution steps changed from none to proposed.

   Full diff, share, rate
   Read version 1, the rules before this edit

   Question

   Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

   “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

   Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

   An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

   If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

   If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.

   The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

   End date

   Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC

3. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:09 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.