NATO downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
   Read the current rules

   Question

   NATO downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if a NATO military downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

   If neither a NATO military downing a Russian drone nor Russia x Ukraine peace talks occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

   If a NATO military downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place before a NATO military downs another Russian drone, this market will resolve to “No”.

   A NATO military will be considered to have downed another Russian drone if a NATO member’s military downs a Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) after market creation.

   A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence.

   The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

   The resolution source for whether a NATO military has downed a Russian drone will be a consensus of credible reporting.

   Russia x Ukraine peace talks will be considered to have taken place if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict after market creation.

   A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

   Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar.

   Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

   The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

   The resolution sources for whether Russia x Ukraine peace talks have taken place will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

   End date

   Jul 1, 2027, 03:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:19 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.