RulesWatch
Dashboard
PolymarketWorldTrading

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Open on Polymarket
Share
Post on X
Badge and embed Download history (JSON)
Yes price
18¢
checked
24h volume
$59k
dollars traded
Ends
Jan 1, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Polymarket's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ended
Waiting for a proposal
Proposed
2 h to dispute on UMA
Resolved
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Polymarket…

Rules history

removedadded
  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Question
    Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    Rules

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

    For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

    The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

    End date
    Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC
  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

Clarifications posted elsewhere

Polymarket sometimes posts a clarification on Discord or X before it edits the market, or without editing it. No API carries those. Link one here and everyone watching gets an alert.

No links added.