Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?

Resolution

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1. 1
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   Question

   Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?

   Rules

   This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

   If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

   The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

   Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

   Resolution source

   https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

   End date

   Jan 29, 2027, 00:00 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedNov 1, 2026, 00:01 UTC

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