Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

Resolution

Checking the live resolution stage with Polymarket…

1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 30 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Question

   Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

   For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").

   Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.

   Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.

   The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

   End date

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.