Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 25 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Question

   Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

   Rules

   This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

   Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

   If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

   This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

   The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

   Resolution source

   https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt

   End date

   Mar 2, 2027, 04:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.