EU dissolves before 2027?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 27 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Question

   EU dissolves before 2027?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

   The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

   1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.

   2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

   3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.

   EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

   The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

   End date

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.