KalshiRules edited
Will Susan Collins outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine?: Yes
Edited between 20:15 and 22:55 UTC (2.7 h window)
Yes64¢66¢63¢−2¢ before the edit, at detection, about an hour later
More rules+35−2
56 words any difference counts as over/underperformance. For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026will beis used to determine relative performance. At that time the average was Jackson 50.2%, Collins 46.6% (Jackson +3.6), so Susan Collins's polling margin is -3.6 points. Susan Collins outperforms if the certified margin of victory is greater than -3.6 points. For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory 115 words
The window runs from my last check that saw the old text to the check that saw the new one. Neither venue says when it edited. Prices are the Yes side, read from Kalshi's API at those checks.
To cite this edit: RulesWatch, edit #1001, Nov 3, https://ruleswatch.com/change/1001. The address is permanent and the diff does not change. The date is when I detected the edit, inside the window above. Attribution with a link is requested when you reuse it. The venue's own page is the authority on the rules.
Did this edit change who should win?
Answer to see how other traders split. Holders' answers are counted apart.
This market's history
1 recorded changeThis is the first recorded change.No later change.