KalshiRules edited

Will Steve Hilton outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 California governor election?: Yes

Edited between 20:30 and 23:10 UTC (2.7 h window)

Yes66¢66¢65¢−1¢ before the edit, at detection, about an hour later

Post on X Every version of these rules Kalshi

+35 −2 words~~removed~~added

More rules+35−2

55 words considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance.

For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 California governor election at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 will beis used to determine relative performance. At that time the average was Becerra 58.2%, Hilton 34.2% (Becerra +24.0), so Steve Hilton's polling margin is -24.0 points. Steve Hilton outperforms if the certified margin of victory is greater than -24.0 points.

For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory 104 words

The window runs from my last check that saw the old text to the check that saw the new one. Neither venue says when it edited. Prices are the Yes side, read from Kalshi's API at those checks.

Did this edit change who should win?

Answer to see how other traders split. Holders' answers are counted apart.

This market's history

1 recorded change

This is the first recorded change.No later change.

Price chart with every edit marked, and every version of the rules