Will Steve Hilton outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 California governor election?: Yes

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1. 2
   Version 2, currentsince 27 min ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will Steve Hilton outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 California governor election?

   Outcome

   Yes

   Rules

   If Steve Hilton's margin of victory outperforms that of the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026 in the 2026 California governor election, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance.

   For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 California governor election at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is used to determine relative performance. At that time the average was Becerra 58.2%, Hilton 34.2% (Becerra +24.0), so Steve Hilton's polling margin is -24.0 points. Steve Hilton outperforms if the certified margin of victory is greater than -24.0 points.

   For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate’s vote share and the vote share of the candidate immediately ahead of them. Positive margins indicate the candidate won, negative margins indicate they lost, and zero indicates a tie. The polling margin is calculated the same way from the RCP Average figures, so a deficit in the average is a negative margin. Vote shares are percentages of all votes cast for the office.

   Write-in votes are aggregated as a single candidate if not individually reported. Only certified results are used for resolution. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results.

   Close time

   Nov 10, 2027, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 10, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the election results are certified.

2. 1
   Rules editedEdited between 20:30 and 23:10 UTC (2.7 h window)Yes66¢→66¢
   More rules+35−2

   65 words this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 California governor election at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 will beis used to determine relative performance. At that time the average was Becerra 58.2%, Hilton 34.2% (Becerra +24.0), so Steve Hilton's polling margin is -24.0 points. Steve Hilton outperforms if the certified margin of victory is greater than -24.0 points.
   
   For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and 116 words

   Full diff, share, rate
   Read version 1, the rules before this edit

   Title

   Will Steve Hilton outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 California governor election?

   Outcome

   Yes

   Rules

   If Steve Hilton's margin of victory outperforms that of the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026 in the 2026 California governor election, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance.

   For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 California governor election at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 will be used to determine relative performance.

   For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate’s vote share and the vote share of the candidate immediately ahead of them. Positive margins indicate the candidate won, negative margins indicate they lost, and zero indicates a tie. The polling margin is calculated the same way from the RCP Average figures, so a deficit in the average is a negative margin. Vote shares are percentages of all votes cast for the office.

   Write-in votes are aggregated as a single candidate if not individually reported. Only certified results are used for resolution. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results.

   Close time

   Nov 10, 2027, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 10, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the election results are certified.

3. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.