Will Linda McMahon be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Resolution

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1. 2
   Version 2, currentsince 10 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will Linda McMahon be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?

   Outcome

   Linda McMahon

   Rules

   If Linda McMahon is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being removed from office) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A person’s announcement of their intent to leave and their departure count as one occurrence, at the earlier of the two. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position.

   For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

   Close time

   Jan 20, 2029, 15:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 20, 2029, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs for any person.

2. 1
   Rules editedEdited between 00:45 and 01:05 UTC (20 min window)Yes1.5¢
   Rules+3−1

   6 words member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached)removed from office) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

   Full diff, share, rate
   Read version 1, the rules before this edit

   Title

   Will Linda McMahon be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?

   Outcome

   Linda McMahon

   Rules

   If Linda McMahon is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A person’s announcement of their intent to leave and their departure count as one occurrence, at the earlier of the two. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position.

   For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

   Close time

   Jan 20, 2029, 15:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 20, 2029, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs for any person.

3. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.