GDP growth in 2026?: 2.1% to 2.5%

Resolution

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   GDP growth in 2026?

   Outcome

   2.1% to 2.5%

   Rules

   If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

   All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

   Close time

   Feb 28, 2027, 13:29 UTC

   Expiration

   Feb 28, 2027, 13:29 UTC

   Early close

   allowed

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.