NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Resolution

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1. 2
   Version 2, currentsince 5 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Question

   NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

   A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.

   Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.

   Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

   Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

   The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

   End date

   Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC

   UMA resolution status

   proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed

2. 1
   Outcome proposedEdited between 02:55 and 05:00 UTC (2.1 h window)Yes0¢→0¢
   UMA resolution status

   19 earlier steps→disputed→proposed→disputed→proposed

   Resolution steps changed from proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed to proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed.

   Full diff, share, rate
   Read version 1, the rules before this edit

   Question

   NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

   A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.

   Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.

   Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

   Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

   The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

   End date

   Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC

   UMA resolution status

   proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed

3. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.