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Will a Chinese AI model be #1 in 2027?: any AI model developed by a company headquartered in China

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Yes price
33¢
checked
24h volume
$116
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Jan 1, 2028
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Nov 7

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Closes Jan 1, 2028
Closed
Kalshi determines the result
Determined
Settles after a short timer
Settled
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Title
    Will a Chinese AI model be #1 in 2027?
    Outcome
    any AI model developed by a company headquartered in China
    Rules

    If any AI model developed by a company headquartered in China is the #1 model on Arena's Text Arena overall leaderboard (no style control) during Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am EST through Dec 31, 2027 at 11:59pm EST, then the market resolves to Yes.

    More rules

    Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.

    If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.

    Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Arena. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

    Close time
    Jan 1, 2028, 04:59 UTC
    Expiration
    Jan 1, 2028, 04:59 UTC
    Early close

    This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

  2. 1
    First recordedNov 7, 2026, 01:47 UTC

    Saved when the market first traded, or when someone first watched it.

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