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Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.60% in Nov 2026?: 4.59% or below

Checked 3 days ago.

Open on Kalshi

Yes price

96¢

checked 3 days ago

24h volume

contracts, $1 each at most

Ended

Nov 5, 2026

3 days ago

Recorded changes

tracked since Nov 5

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.

Yes price

Resolution

Trading

Closes Nov 5, 2026

Closed

Kalshi determines the result

Determined

Settles after a short timer

Settled

Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

Rules history

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1
Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 3 days ago

Read the current rules
Title
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.60% in Nov 2026?
Outcome
4.59% or below
Rules
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.60% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
More rules
How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 5-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.
Close time
Nov 5, 2026, 23:00 UTC
Expiration
Dec 1, 2026, 15:00 UTC
Early close
allowed
1
First recordedNov 5, 2026, 23:05 UTC
Saved when the market first traded, or when someone first watched it.

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Series facts

Series: KX5YRDIRLM
Frequency: monthly
Fee type: quadratic
Fee multiplier: 1
Settlement sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury
Contract terms: Kalshi contract terms (PDF)
Certification filing: Product certification (PDF)

Additional prohibitions (10)

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Any officer, employee, or contractor of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or any Federal Reserve Bank, including any individual with access to non-public monetary policy deliberations, FOMC materials, or open market operations data.
Any officer, employee, or contractor of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, including the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, with access to non-public information regarding debt issuance calendars, auction sizes, refunding announcements, or other non-public Treasury financing decisions.
Any employee, officer, director, or contractor of a primary dealer designated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, including any individual with access to non-public auction allocation data, dealer positioning, or advance knowledge of Treasury issuance changes.
Any employee, officer, director, or contractor of a credit rating agency (e.g., Moody's, S&P Global Ratings, Fitch Ratings) with access to non-public information regarding an anticipated sovereign credit rating action affecting the United States.
Any employee or contractor of the Congressional Budget Office, Joint Committee on Taxation, or congressional committee staff with access to non-public fiscal or debt-ceiling legislative information reasonably likely to materially affect Treasury yields.
Any employee, officer, director, or contractor of a central bank (foreign or domestic), sovereign wealth fund, or other institutional holder with access to non-public information regarding anticipated large-scale Treasury purchase or sale activity.
Any individual who has received non-public information regarding anticipated monetary policy actions, Treasury issuance decisions, credit rating actions, or fiscal policy developments from a person described above.
Immediate family members and known close associates of any individual described above.

As 5Y how low monthly lists them on Kalshi, last updated Oct 23, 2026.

Key terms now

Outcome: 4.59% or below
Close time: Nov 5, 2026, 23:00 UTC
Expiration: Dec 1, 2026, 15:00 UTC
Early close: allowed

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