Rules+13−3
If the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill impeaching the President of the United Stateshas been impeachedafter Issuance and before Aug 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Proof
Five rules edits, word by word
These come from the record that started Oct 31, 2026. Each one changed the words that decide how a market pays out. Removed words are red, added words are green.
The Yes prices are my readings at the checks around each edit. They are shown as recorded. The record does not say the edit moved them, or that anyone gained or lost.
1. Will the President be impeached before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027
Nov 7, 2026. The test for Yes moved from the event itself to a vote of the House. The new text also counts only what happens "after Issuance".
2. Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Denver
Nov 2, 2026. "Hosts" became "is officially designated as the host city for". The condition now names an official designation.
Rules+8−1
If Denverhostsis officially designated as the host city for the 2028 Democratic national convention, then the market resolves to Yes.
3. Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 6, 2026?: Before Nov 6, 2026
Nov 7, 2026. The name "Astra 6.1" became "a model called Astra 6.1 or greater to the public". A higher version and the word "public" now count.
Rules+10−2
If OpenAI releasesAstra 6.1a model called Astra 6.1 or greater to the public before Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
4. Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?
Nov 7, 2026. The first rule adds expulsion from the party. The second adds a list of five cases that do not count, among them resignation from Congress and loss of party endorsement.
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?
Yes9.6¢4.4¢4.7¢−5¢
Rules+6−3
If John Fettermanleaves orleaves, announces that they areleavingleaving, or is expelled from the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
More rules+97−30
IfJohn Fetterman leaves the Democratic party if, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, any of the following occurs: John Fetterman changes their official party registration from Democratic to another party or toindependent/unaffiliated status, orindependent or unaffiliated status. John Fetterman announces they are no longer a member of the Democraticparty, orparty. John Fetterman is expelled from the Democratic party by official partyaction, then the market will resolve to Yes.action. If John Fetterman is a member of the U.S.Senate and, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027,Senate, John Fetterman announces they will no longer caucus with the Democratic party or begins caucusing with a differentparty, the market also resolves to Yes.party. The following do NOT count: Resignation from Congress or expulsion from Congress. Temporary suspension from party activities or committees while remaining a member of the Democratic party. Loss of party endorsement or support while remaining a member of the Democratic party. Statements about considering leaving the Democratic party without actually leaving. Being stripped of committee assignments while remaining a member of the Democratic party.
5. Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?: Reza Pahlavi
Nov 3, 2026. One sentence added: "Interim or acting appointments do NOT count."
More rules+7−0
Interim or acting appointments do NOT count.
Every edit to rules text, newest first: the changes feed. How I compare and what I miss: how it works.