Will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027

Resolution

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   Title

   Will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?

   Outcome

   Before Jul 1, 2027

   Rules

   If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   A qualifying federal law must require external reporting of serious incidents or dangerous near misses involving AI models or systems. This includes events causing or threatening serious physical, economic, environmental, privacy, or security harm, as well as significant loss of control or compromise of model security. The law's reporting trigger or definitions must identify serious, critical, material, significant, or catastrophic incidents, or set a harm or risk threshold excluding routine low-impact events. A broader reporting duty qualifies if it includes such a defined category. Confidential reports to an authority or designated external recipient and public disclosure both qualify.

   Internal reporting alone, voluntary programs, routine errors, and capability or risk assessments without an incident or dangerous near miss do not qualify. A general cybersecurity reporting law without an AI-specific reporting duty does not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification.

   An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925).

   Close time

   Jul 1, 2027, 03:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Jul 7, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

2. 1
   First recordedNov 8, 2026, 17:02 UTC

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