Will crypto market structure legislation become law before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 9 days ago
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   Title

   Will crypto market structure legislation become law before Jan 1, 2028?

   Outcome

   Before Jan 1, 2028

   Rules

   If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following:

   Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND
   Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND
   Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.

   The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:

   Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure;
   Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework;
   Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs);
   Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities;
   Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions;
   Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts);
   Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress;
   Bills that are vetoed and not overridden;
   State legislation of any kind

   Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion:

   The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, if passed by both chambers and signed into law;
   The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), if passed by both chambers and signed into law;
   Any omnibus bill that includes comprehensive crypto market structure provisions as described above.

   Examples that would NOT meet the Payout Criterion:

   The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation);
   The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific);
   A bill that passes the House but not the Senate;
   An executive order directing agencies to study crypto regulation.

   Close time

   Jan 1, 2028, 15:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 1, 2028, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.