KalshiPoliticsTrading

Will Republicans hold at least 195 House seats after the 2028 election?: At least 195

Checked 4 h ago.

Open on Kalshi

Yes price

51¢

checked 4 h ago

24h volume

contracts, $1 each at most

Ends

Feb 1, 2029

in 816 days

Recorded changes

tracked since Nov 7

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.

Yes price

Resolution

Trading

Closes Feb 1, 2029

Closed

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Rules history

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1
Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago

Read the current rules
Title
Will Republicans hold at least 195 House seats after the 2028 election?
Outcome
At least 195
Rules
If the Republican Party holds at least 195 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 7, 2028, general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
More rules
Independent and unaffiliated members who caucus with Republicans will be included. Every voting seat in the House counts, including any seat not on the 2028 ballot. Vacant and disputed seats count toward no party.
Close time
Feb 1, 2029, 15:00 UTC
Expiration
Feb 1, 2029, 15:00 UTC
Early close
This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
1
First recordedNov 7, 2026, 05:52 UTC
Saved when the market first traded, or when someone first watched it.

Clarifications posted elsewhere

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Series facts

Series: KXHOUSESEATSR
Frequency: one off
Fee type: quadratic
Fee multiplier: 1
Settlement sources: United States Congress
Contract terms: Kalshi contract terms (PDF)
Certification filing: Product certification (PDF)

Additional prohibitions (9)

In addition to the general prohibition against trading on material nonpublic information, the Exchange will institute additional prohibitions for trading the contract. Persons under 18 years of age are not permitted to create Kalshi accounts. The following individuals will be prohibited from trading:
Any member or member-elect of <chamber>, and any candidate for a seat in <chamber> at <election>.
Any officer, employee, or contractor of <chamber> or of the United States Congress, including the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, the Secretary of the Senate, and any staff responsible for maintaining or publishing the official membership record, party breakdown, or party division of <chamber>.
Any officer, employee, or agent of a party caucus or conference in <chamber>, or of any national or state party organization, with access to material nonpublic information regarding the membership, party affiliation, or caucus membership of any member or member-elect of <chamber>.
Any officer, employee, or contractor of a state or local election authority involved in conducting, canvassing, or certifying <election> for any seat in <chamber>.
Any employee, officer, contractor, or agent of a campaign committee, party congressional campaign committee, or political action committee supporting or opposing candidates for <chamber> at <election>, with access to material nonpublic information regarding the outcome of any race for <chamber> or the party affiliation or caucus membership of any member or member-elect.
Any employee, officer, contractor, or agent of a Source Agency listed in Appendix A with access to material nonpublic information relating to the Underlying.
Any person who otherwise has the ability to influence, or has advance knowledge of, the outcome of <election> for any seat in <chamber>, the seating of any member of <chamber>, or the party affiliation or caucus membership of any member of <chamber> at the Measurement Time.
The immediate family members and members of the same household of any person described above

As Republican House seat count lists them on Kalshi, last updated Nov 6, 2026.

Key terms now

Outcome: At least 195
Close time: Feb 1, 2029, 15:00 UTC
Expiration: Feb 1, 2029, 15:00 UTC
Early close: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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