Will KPOW Midterms be at least -45.0 on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM EST?: D+45 or redder

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 5 days ago
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   Title

   Will KPOW Midterms be at least -45.0 on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM EST?

   Outcome

   D+45 or redder

   Rules

   If the 15-minute time-weighted average of the Kalshi American Power Index - Midterms (KPOW Midterms) ending at 12:00 AM EST on November 4, 2026 is at least -45.0, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The average is calculated and published by Pyth under the methodology in Appendix B of the KPOW Midterms filing and is used at the precision Pyth publishes it, without rounding. Only trades at or before 12:00 AM EST count, and a price move held by the index's price check counts only once it is accepted.

   The index runs from -50, Democratic candidates certain to win every weighted race, to +50, Republican candidates certain to win every weighted race. D+ and R+ give the level as a lead: D+20 is -20.0 and R+5 is +5.0. A strike labeled "D+20 or redder" resolves to Yes if the average is at least -20.0, and one labeled "R+5 or redder" if it is at least +5.0.

   The following do NOT count:
   Any single published value of the index, including the 30-second updates and the value at 12:00 AM EST
   Charts, indicative figures and third-party recalculations

   A constituent market that stops trading, is determined or settles keeps its last accepted price, so a race being called or certified does NOT, by itself, move the index.

   Close time

   Nov 4, 2026, 05:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 11, 2026, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   allowed

2. 1
   First recordedNov 4, 2026, 05:30 UTC

   Saved when the market first traded, or when someone first watched it.