Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for October 2026 be above 140?: Above 140

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 9 days ago
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   Title

   Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for October 2026 be above 140?

   Outcome

   Above 140

   Rules

   If the Carbon Arc Nicotine product point of sale spend array index (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 140, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the Carbon Arc Nicotine Products Array value for the full month covered by this market, as recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 2nd calendar day after the end of that month. For example, the value for August is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 2. Later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value.

   The reference is Carbon Arc's published full-month Nicotine Products Array level: https://www.carbonarc.co/prisms?prism=760cbe4e-2cdc-4139-8285-d97a6de34cb9&entity=Nicotine+Products. The underlying metric is convenience-store point-of-sale spend. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices. At listing, its members are Zyn, Velo, on!, Rogue, each weighted 1/4. Each constituent index is 100 when its measured convenience-store point-of-sale spend equals the same month of the previous year; the array averages these indices. An array level of 103 means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3%, and 97 means their average decline is 3%.

   Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

   Close time

   Nov 3, 2026, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 10, 2026, 06:30 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.