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Who will recognize Palestine?: USA

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Yes price
—
read on the next check
24h volume
—
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Jan 1, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Closes Jan 1, 2027
Closed
Kalshi determines the result
Determined
Settles after a short timer
Settled
Paid out

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Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Title
    Who will recognize Palestine?
    Outcome
    USA
    Rules

    If the United States of America recognizes Palestine before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    More rules

    Official diplomatic recognition may include, but is not limited to:

    A formal announcement by the recognizing country that it recognizes the recognized country as a sovereign state
    Establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level
    Opening of an embassy or diplomatic mission (not just consulates)
    Signing of a joint communiqué establishing diplomatic relations
    An official state visit by the head of state/government acknowledging sovereignty
    A formal letter of recognition from the head of state/government or foreign minister

    The following do NOT constitute recognition:

    Trade relations or commercial agreements alone
    Consular relations without diplomatic relations
    Participation in the same international conference
    Humanitarian assistance or aid
    Cultural or educational exchanges
    Recognition by subnational entities (states, provinces, cities)
    Statements of "support" without formal recognition
    De facto cooperation without formal recognition
    Recognition conditional on future events that have not occurred
    Parliamentary resolutions without executive action

    For clarity: recognition must be of the recognized country as a sovereign state, not merely acknowledgment of a government in charge. Withdrawal of recognition from a competing entity is not required. Votes in UN bodies do not constitute recognition unless accompanied by bilateral recognition.

    Close time
    Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC
    Expiration
    Jan 8, 2027, 15:00 UTC
    Early close

    This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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