Will Trump recognize Somaliland?: Before Jan 20, 2029

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 33 h ago
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   Title

   Will Trump recognize Somaliland?

   Outcome

   Before Jan 20, 2029

   Rules

   If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.

   Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.

   Close time

   Jan 20, 2029, 15:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 20, 2029, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

2. 1
   First recordedNov 7, 2026, 14:57 UTC

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