Rules edits, Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026

Interim or acting appointments do NOT count.

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For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 will beis used to determine relative performance. At that time the average was Talarico 49.1%, Paxton 46.5% (Talarico +2.6), so James Talarico's polling margin is +2.6 points. James Talarico outperforms if the certified margin of victory is greater than +2.6 points.

For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest 114 words

62 words the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 will beis used to determine relative performance. At that time the average was El-Sayed 50.3%, Rogers 45.0% (El-Sayed +5.3), so Abdul El-Sayed's polling margin is +5.3 points. Abdul El-Sayed outperforms if the certified margin of victory is greater than +5.3 points.

For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest 114 words

11 words as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceedsis equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily 371 words

Will JFET leave the John Fetterman?John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

If John Fetterman leaves or announces that they are leaving the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For Senators only: If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, John Fetterman announces they will no longer caucus with the Democratic party or begins caucusing with a different party, the market also resolves to Yes.

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For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 will beis used to determine relative performance. At that time the average was Jackson 50.2%, Collins 46.6% (Jackson +3.6), so Susan Collins's polling margin is -3.6 points. Susan Collins outperforms if the certified margin of victory is greater than -3.6 points.

For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest 125 words

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