Economy markets on Polymarket and Kalshi

1,718 open economy markets I track on both venues, with each one's Yes price, volume and rules edits. Categories come from keywords in the title and event.

Market	Venue	Yes	24h vol	Ends
Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?: Exactly 3	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 3
Will data center power-cost standards become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 1
Will there be a recession in 2026?: Starts	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 31
Will there be a recession in 2027?: Yes	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 31
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026	Kalshi	—	—	Dec 1
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Feb 1, 2027?: Before Feb 1, 2027	Kalshi	—	—	Feb 1
When will Stripe IPO?: Before Dec 1, 2026	Kalshi	—	—	Dec 1
When will Stripe IPO?: Before Jan 1, 2027	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 1
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?: Before 2027	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 1
Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?: 30% or above	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 1
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?: Critical minerals	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 1
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of XRP for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 21
Will the S&P/TSX Composite Index be at least 38,000 in 2026?: At least 38,000	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 1
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.6 million barrels/day?: Above 5.6 million barrels/day	Kalshi	—	—	Mar 31
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.7 million barrels/day?: Above 5.7 million barrels/day	Kalshi	—	—	Mar 31
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.8 million barrels/day?: Above 5.8 million barrels/day	Kalshi	—	—	Mar 31
Will Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 5.9 million barrels/day?: Above 5.9 million barrels/day	Kalshi	—	—	Mar 31
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in November?: Above 4.0%	Kalshi	—	—	Dec 4
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in November?: Above 4.1%	Kalshi	—	—	Dec 4
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in November?: Above 4.3%	Kalshi	—	—	Dec 4
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in October?: Above 3.7%	Kalshi	—	—	in 4 days
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in October?: Above 3.9%	Kalshi	—	—	in 4 days
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in October?: Above 4.0%	Kalshi	—	—	in 4 days
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October?: Above 4.1%	Kalshi	—	—	in 4 days
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in October?: Above 4.2%	Kalshi	—	—	in 4 days
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in October?: Above 4.3%	Kalshi	—	—	in 4 days
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in October?: Above 4.4%	Kalshi	—	—	in 4 days
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 4.5%?: Above 4.5%	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 7
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 5.0%?: Above 5.0%	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 7
How high will unemployment get before 2027?: Above 4.5%	Kalshi	—	—	Jan 8
Brazil unemployment rate in October 2026?: Above 5.2%	Kalshi	—	—	Nov 27
China unemployment rate in October 2026?: Above 5.6%	Kalshi	—	—	Nov 16
Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026?: Above 2.6%	Kalshi	—	—	Nov 26
Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026?: Above 2.7%	Kalshi	—	—	Nov 26
Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026?: Above 2.8%	Kalshi	—	—	Nov 26
Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 3.5%?: Above 3.5%	Kalshi	—	—	Feb 1
Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 4.0%?: Above 4.0%	Kalshi	—	—	Feb 1
Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 5.5%?: Above 5.5%	Kalshi	—	—	Feb 1
Will the USD/JPY open price be below 155.750 at Nov 2, 2026 at 10am EST?: 155.749 or below	Kalshi	—	—	Nov 2
Will the USD/JPY open price be above 158.999 at Nov 2, 2026 at 10am EST?: 159.0 or above	Kalshi	—	—	Nov 2
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 56.0%?: Above 56.0%	Kalshi	—	—	Feb 28
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 58.0%?: Above 58.0%	Kalshi	—	—	Feb 28
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 62.0%?: Above 62.0%	Kalshi	—	—	Feb 28
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 64.0%?: Above 64.0%	Kalshi	—	—	Feb 28
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.6%?: Above 25.6%	Kalshi	—	—	Jul 1
Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.7%?: Above 25.7%	Kalshi	—	—	Jul 1
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.87% on Nov 2, 2026?: 4.88% or above	Kalshi	—	—	in 2 h
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% on Nov 2, 2026?: 4.96% or above	Kalshi	—	—	in 2 h
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.45% on Nov 2, 2026?: 4.46% or above	Kalshi	—	—	in 2 h
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.57% on Nov 2, 2026?: 4.58% or above	Kalshi	—	—	in 2 h

Prices and volumes are from my last read of each market; a dash means I haven't read it since tracking began. Kalshi volume counts contracts traded, each worth up to $1, as Kalshi's own site does.